题目内容:
根据以下材料,回答题Revolutionaryinnovationisnowoccurringinallscientificandtechnologicalfields.Thiswaveofunprecedentedchangeisdrivenprimarilybyadvancesininformationtechnology,butitismuchlarger
inscope.WearenotdealingsimplywithanInformationRevolutionbutwithaTechnologyRevolution.
Toanticipatedevelopmentsinthisfield,theGeorgeWashingtonUniversityForecastofEmergingTechnologieswaslaunchedatthestartofthe1990s.Wehavenowcompletedfourroundsofour
Delphisurvey-in1990,1992,1994,and1996-givingusawealthofdataandexperience.Wenowcanofferareasonablyclearpictureofwhatcanbeexpectedtohappenintechnologyoverthenextthreedecades.
Timehorizonsplayacrucialroleinforecastingtechnology.Forecastsofthenextfivetotenyearsareoftensopredictablethattheyfallintotherealmofmarketresearch,whilethosemorethan30or
40yearsawayaremostlyspeculation.Thisleavesa10-to20-yearwindowinwhichtomakeusefulforecasts.ItisthistimeframethatourForecastaddresses.
TheForecastusesdiversemethods,includingenvironmentalscanning,trendanalysis,Delphisurveys,andmodelbuilding.Environmentalscanningisusedtoidentifyemergingtechnologies.Trend
analysisguidestheselectionofthemostimportanttechnologiesforfurtherstudy,andamodi-fiedDelphisurveyisusedtoobtainforecasts.InsteadofusingthetraditionalDelphimethodofpro-vidingrespondentswithimmediatefeedbackandrequestingadditionalestimatesinordertoarriveataconsensus,weconductanothersurveyafteranadditionaltimeperiodofabouttwoyears.
Finally,theresultsareportrayedintime.periodstobuildmodelsofunfoldingtechnologicalchange.Byusingmultiplemethodsinsteadofrelyingonasingleapproach,theForecastcanproducemore
reliable,usefulestimates.
Forourlatestsurveyconductedin1996,weselected85emergingtechnologiesrepresentingthemostcrucialadvancesthatcanbeforeseen.Wethensubmittedthelistoftechnologiestoourpanelof
futuristsfortheirjudgmentsastowhen(orif)eachtechnologicaldevelopmentwouldenterthemainstream,theprobabilitythatitwouldhappen,andtheestimatedsizeoftheeconomicmarketforit.
Inshort,wesoughtaforecastastowheneachemergingtechnologywillhaveactually"emerged."
Whatwealefacedwithatpresentcanbebestdescribedasarevolutionin A.information.
B.advancedmethod.
C.science.
D.technology.
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