题目内容：
TheEndoftheBook?
A．Amazon,byfarthelargestbooksellerinthecountry,reportedonMay19thatitisnowsellingmorebooksinitselectronicKindleformatthanintheoldpaper-and-inkformat．Thatisremarkable,consideringthattheKindlehasonlybeenaroundforfouryears．E-booksnowaccountfor14percentofallbooksalesinthiscountryandareincreasingfarfasterthanoverallbooksales．E-booksalesareup146percentoverlastyear,whilehardbacksalesincreased6percentandpaperbacksdecreased8percent．
B．Doesthisspellthedoomofthephysicalbook?Certainlynotimmediately,andperhapsnotatall．WhatitdoesmeanisthatthebookbusinesswillgothroughatransformationinthenextdecadeorsomoreprofoundthananyithasseensinceGutenbergintroducedprintingfrommoveabletypeinthe1450s．
C．Physicalbookswillsurelybecomemuchrarerinthemarketplace．Massmarketpaperbacks,whichhavebeendecliningforyearsanyway,willprobablydisappear,aswillhardbacksformysteries,thrillers,“omancefiction,”etc．Suchbooks,whichonlyrarelyendupinpermanentcollections,eitherprivateorpublic,willprobablyonlybeavailablease-bookswithinafewyears．Hardbackandtradepaperbacksfor“serious”nonfictionandfictionwillsurelylastlonger．PerhapsitwillbecomethemarkofanauthortoreckonwiththatheorsheisStillpublishedinhardcopy．
D．Asforchildren'sbooks,whoknows?Children's_booksarelikedogfoodinthatthepurchasersarenottheconsumers,sothemarket(andthemarketing)isinherentlystrange．
E．Forcluestothebook'sfuture,let'slookatsomeexamplesoftechnologicalchangeandseewhathappenedtotheoldtechnology．
F．Onetechnologyreplacesanotheronlybecausethenewtechnologyisbetter,cheaper,orboth．Thegreaterthedifference,thesoonerandmorethoroughlythenewtechnologyreplacestheold．Printingwithmoveabletypeonpaperdramaticallyreducedthecostofproducingabookcomparedwiththeold-fashionedoneshandwrittenonvellum,whichcomesfromsheepskin．ABible--tobesure,alongbook--requiredvellummadefrom300sheepskinsandcountlessman-hoursoflabor．Beforeprintingarrived,aBiblecostmorethanamiddle-classhouse．Therewereperhaps50,000booksinallofEuropein1450．By1500therewere10million．
G．Butwhileprintingquicklycausedthehandwrittenbooktodieout,handwritinglingeredon(继续存在)wellintothe16thcentury．Veryspecialbooksarestilloccasionallyproducedonvellum,buttheyareone-of-a-kindshowpieces．
H．Sometimesanewtechnologydoesn'tdrivetheoldoneout,butonlypartsofitwhileforcingtheresttoevolve．Themovieswerewidelypredictedtodrivelivetheateroutofthemarketplace,buttheydidn't,becausetheaterturnedouttohavequalitiesmoviescouldnotreproduce．Equally,TVwassupposedtoreplacemoviesbut,again,didnot．
I．Moviesdid,however,fatallyimpactsomepartsoflivetheater．AndwhileTVdidn'tkillmovies,itdidkillsecond-ratepictures,shorts,andcartoons．
J．NordidTVkillradio．Comedyanddramashows(“JackBenny,”“AmosandAndy,”“TheShadow”)allmigratedtotelevision．Butbecauseyoucan'tdriveacarandwatchtelevisionatthesametime,rushhourbecameradio'sprimetime,whilemusic,talk,andnewsradiogreatlyenlargedtheiraudiences．Radioistodayaverydifferentbusinessthaninthelate1940sandamuchlargerone．
K．Sometimesoldtechnologylingersforcenttmesbecauseofitssymbolicpower．Mountedcavalry(骑兵)replacedthechariot(二轮战车)onthebattlefieldaround1000BC．ButchariotsmaintainedtheirplaceinparadesandtriumphsrightupuntiltheendoftheRomanEmpire1,500yearslater．Theswordhasn'thadamilitaryfunctionforahundredyears,butisstillpartofanofficer'sfull-dressuniform,preciselybecauseaswordalwayssymbolized“anofficerandagentleman．”
L．Sometimesnewtechnologyisalittlecranky(不稳定的)atfirst．Televisionrepairmanwasacommonoccupationinthe1950s,forinstance．Andsotheoldtechnologyremainsasabackup．SteamshipscapturedtheNorthAtlanticpassengerbusinessfromsailinthe1840sbecauseofitsmuchgreaterspeed．Butsteamshipsdidn'tlosetheirsailsuntilthe1880s,becauseearlymarineengineshadanastyhabitofbreakingdown．Untilshipsbecamelargeenough(andenginessmallenough)tomounttwoenginessidebyside,theyneededtokeepsails．(Thehighcostofsteamandthelesserneedforspeedkeptthemajorityoftheworld'soceanfreightmovingbysailuntiltheearlyyearsofthe20thcentury．)
M．Thenthereisthefireplace．Centralheatingwaspresentinupper-andmiddle-classhomebythesecondhalfofthe19thcentury．Butfunctioningfireplacesremaintothisdayapowerfulsellingpointinahouseorapartment．Isuspectthereasonisadeep-rootedloveoffire．Firewasoneoftheearliestmajortechnologicaladvancesforhumankind,providingheat,protection,andcookedfood(whichismucheasiertoeatanddigest)．Humancontroloffiregoesbackfarenough(overamillionyears)thatevolutioncouldhaveproducedageneticleaningtowardsfireasacentralaspectofhumanlife．
N．Books--especiallybookstheaveragepersoncouldafford--haven'tbeenaroundlongenoughtoproduceevolutionarychangeinhumans．Buttheyhaveapowerfulholdonmanypeoplenonetheless,aholdextendingfarbeyondtheirliterarycontent．Attheirbest,theyareworksofartandthereisatactile(触觉的)pleasureinbooksnecessarilylostine-bookversions．Theabilitytoquicklythumbthroughpagesisalsolost．Andaroomwithbooksinitinduces,atleastinsome,afeelingnotdissimilartothatofafireinthefireplaceonacoldwinter'snight．
O．ForthesereasonsIthinkphysicalbookswillhavealongerexistenceasacommercialproductthansomecurrentlypredict．Likeswords,bookshavesymbolicpower．Likefireplaces,theyinduceasenseofcomfortandwarmth．And,perhaps,similartosails,theymakeausefulbackupforwhenthelightsgoout．
Authorsstillpublishedinprintedversionswillbeconsideredimportantones．
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