题目内容:
根据短文,回答题Revolutionaryinnovationisnowoccurringinallscientificandtechnologicalfields.Thiswaveofunprecedentedchangeisdrivenprimarilybyadvancesininformationtechnology。butitismuchlargerinscope.WearenotdealingsimplywithanInformationRevolutionbutwithaTechnologyRevolution.Toanticipatedevelopmentsinthisfield,theGeorgeWashingtonUniversityForecastofEmergingTechnologieswaslaunchedatthestartofthel990s.WehavenowcompletedfourroundsofourDelphisurvey—inl990,1992,1994,andl996一givingusawealthofdataandexperience.Wenowcanofferareasonablyclearpictureofwhatcanbeexpectedtohappenintechnologyoverthenextthreedecades.
Timehorizonsplayacrucialroleinforecastingtechnology.Forecastsofthenextfivetotenyearsareoftensopredictablethattheyfallintotherealmofmarketresearch。whilethosemorethan300r40yearsawayaremostlyspeculation.Thisleavesal0一to20一yearwindowinwhichtomakeusefulforecasts.ItisthistimeframethatourForecastaddresses.
TheForecastusesdiversemethods,includingenvironmentalscanning,trendanalysis,Delphisurveys,andmodelbuilding.Environmentalscanningisusedtoidentifyemergingtechnologies.Trendanalysisguidestheselectionofthemostimportanttechnologiesforfurtherstudy,andamodifiedDelphisurveyisusedtoobtainforecasts.InsteadofusingthetraditionalDelphimethodofprovidingrespondentswithimmediatefeed—backandrequestingadditionalestimatesinordertoarriveataconsensus.weconductanothersurveyafteranadditionaltimeperiodofabouttwoyears.
Fimlly,theresuItsareportrayedintimeperiodstobuildmodelsofunfoldingtechnologicalchange.Byusingmultiplemethodsinsteadofrelyingonasingleapproach,theForecastcanproducemorereliable,usefulestimates.
Forourlatestsurveyconductedinl996,weselected85emergingtechnologiesrepresentingthemostcrucialadvancesthatcanbeforeseenWethensubmittedthelistoftechnologiestoourpaneloffuturistsfortheirjudgmentsastowhen(orif)eachtechnologicaldevelopmentwouldenterthemainstream,theprobabilitythatitwouldhappen,andtheestimatedsizeoftheeconomicmarketforit.Inshort,wesoughtaforecastastowheneachemergingtechnologywillhaveactually“emerged”.
Whatwearefacedwithatpresentcanbebestdescribedasarevolutionin__________. A.information
B.advancedmethod
C.science
D.technology
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